The Spanish absorption of Portugal and its empire in 1581 made the partially merged Iberian entity a broader target. Rogers Professor of Political Science at Indiana University. Systemic Transition Dynamics and the Conflict Drivers in the China—United States Transition Context 6. Thompson is Distinguished Professor and the Donal A. Though it is difficult to forecast precisely who may challenge and when, there is still reason to anticipate that some level of heightened conflict is likely to be associated with a period of structural transition. Ultimately, the Impeccable did leave the area but the Chinese flotilla continued to harass it with dangerous maneuvers as it was leaving, including an attempt to capture its towed sonar array.
With Transition Scenarios, David P. If the opponent is a very strong power, victory is not absolutely necessary. The Portuguese took more than three generations to work their way around the African continent once they had begun their initial and largely unsuccessful efforts to expand into Morocco. If multiple challengers do emerge, will the United States designate one as the principal threat and concede or ally with the others in an attempt to thwart at least one challenger? Though they need not culminate in war, power transitions tend to be particularly dangerous periods, especially if the challenger is dissatisfied with the existing order and the economic benefits, security, and status it is accorded within it. The Chinese government retorted that foreign military ships could sail through their exclusive economic zone up to two hundred miles from Hainan , but only if their passage was for innocent purposes—a description that did not apply to the Impeccable.
Might the United States revive its faltering lead economy and make the twenty-first century an American one as it did in the previous century? This analytically sophisticated and historically rich study is essential reading for all those interested in one of the most critical policy questions of our age. Rogers Professor of Political Science at Indiana University. We amend it only slightly for immediate purposes by treating the 1870—71 transformation of Prussia into Germany as a new great power. We must emphasize the word address. We focus on this second objective by asking whether, to what extent, and how well, our theories speak to the prospects of a future transition. Whatever the merits of general international relations theory, it has major limitations when it comes to assessing specific types of behavior. But there is also an economic dimension to emergence and ascent that must be taken into account.
Such modesty is entirely appropriate. Rapkin and Thompson's use of the theoretical tools of international relations to crucial transitions in history helps clarify the current situation and also sheds light on possible future scenarios. Conflict between China and, first, India and then Japan initiates escalation toward war. Not only are the answers to the questions posed here unknown; they are also, at present, unknowable. Part of chapter 4 was published initially as David P. Climate deterioration makes resource scarcity more acute and conflict over resources increases.
Scenarios of Future United States—China Warfare: What Is Missing from This Picture? World War I was inconclusive although it was clear that the incumbent system leader, Britain, was unlikely to recover fully from the costs of that war. Systemic Transition Dynamics and the Conflict Drivers in the China—United States Transition Context 6. Scenarios of Future United States—China Warfare: What Is Missing from This Picture? But future outcomes are not predicated solely on how Chinese decision-makers view the world and their status within it. Thompson identify some predictors for power transitions and take readers through possible scenarios for future relations between China and the United States. There are problems with our theoretical infrastructure that can be addressed here and now.
Using this list as a guideline, we can then ask what happened when new great powers emerged. Are challengers for the lead economy position any more likely to escape the heightened conflict associated with emergence into the great power club? The ultimate test and the full implications of the alternative scenarios, and the power of international relations theory, thus lie sometime in the future. Multiple Outcomes, International Relations Theory, and Scenario Construction Our questions cannot be answered in the near term because they refer to processes that are currently underway, that are still highly open-ended, and that may require several decades or more to reach fruition. Can we predict the future by using the past? Warfare with Britain resumed in the 1740s, 1750s—60s, 1770s—80s, peaking in the 1793—1815 French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars. As shown in tables 1. . Commentators have tended to treat this transitional period as a novelty, but history is in fact replete with such systemic transitions—sometimes with perilous results.
If you think you should have access to this title, please contact your librarian. We have no crystal ball to answer these questions. As Aaron Friedberg notes in the first quotation above, how this relationship will play out into the future is both unknown and unknowable at the present time. China's rising status in the global economy alongside recent economic stagnation in Europe and the United States has led to considerable speculation that we are in the early stages of a transition in power relations. Entry into the great-power ranks and warfare Source: War data are taken from Jack S. Or, might the United States revitalize itself once again and widen its technological lead? And, if so, what might history teach us? For a few decades, they were also able to monopolize the delivery of spices to European markets. How it might start provides the primary focus.
Rapkin and Thompson's application of the theoretical tools of international relations to crucial transitions in history helps clarify the current situation and also sheds light on possible future scenarios. In the modern era i. Violent Conflict and the Emergence of Great Powers The history of status mobility at the apex of the international system is characterized quite demonstrably by considerable violence. Thompson identify some predictors for power transitions and take readers through possible scenarios for future relations between China and the United States. In the nineteenth century, Britain held the lead economy position. Each scenario is embedded within a particular theoretical framework, inviting readers to consider the assumptions underlying it.